Day one of the risk signals, and it was all about when to get out

Starting today our service settled into one shape. We vet a coin that is drawing attention for 10 minutes, flag it as Attention Confirmed, and from then on the risk signals tell you when to step out. Here is an honest record of day one (June 25, UTC+9, KST). The average looks good. If you entered at the flag and closed on the first risk signal, the 14 coins averaged 28 percent. But that number is almost entirely made by two coins (264 percent and 199 percent). Remove those two and the average drops to minus 6 percent, the median is minus 10 percent, and only 6 of 14 ended positive (a 43 percent win rate). So we will not say we made money. An average propped up by a couple of jackpots becomes a lie the first day they fail to show. What did repeat clearly was something else. Coins held to the end while ignoring the signals collapsed to minus 91, 94, 98, and 99 percent. The same coins, closed on the first risk signal, cut losses to within minus 20 to 40 percent (one coin was minus 98 percent if held, but plus 20 percent if you left on the first signal). Meanwhile the big movers threw a risk signal (volume drying up, drawdown from the high) near their top, leaving room to step aside with gains like 264, 199, and 77 percent. In short, the value of the risk signals was not what to buy but when to get out. Hold and you take a minus 90 percent rug, react and you dodge the worst while the big moves peel off near the top. That said, this is one day and 14 coins, and some are too fresh to trust yet. Please take it as a first observation, not a conclusion, and we will keep checking whether the pattern holds. This is not investment advice.