A caution signal reads differently above vs below the first-signal MC
๐งญ Added a vs flag tag (market-cap change since the first-signal MC, shown as ๐/๐) to risk-watch cards. The same caution signal tended to allow a bit more upside when fired above the first-signal MC, but fell fast when fired below it. Both eventually declined, so read a caution as a cue to prepare an exit. A tendency, not a hard rule.
We added a "vs flag" tag to the risk-watch cards. The flag is a coin's first-signal moment (when we first flagged it as one to watch), and vs flag shows how far its market cap now sits above (๐) or below (๐) the first-signal MC. The "flagged at MC..." at the top of the card is that first-signal MC. Here is why we added it. For the same yellow caution signal, what happened next differed by whether the market cap was above or below the first-signal MC at that point. Coins that threw a caution while still above it (๐) tended to push a bit higher afterward, with some momentum left. Coins that threw a caution while already below it (๐) tended to fall much faster. That said, both eventually rolled over. The extra upside above the first-signal MC was only a short further pop, and holding either to the end ended in a loss. So a caution signal is not something to ignore. It reads more like "get ready to step out." So when you see a caution signal on a card, read it together with vs flag. If it is above the first-signal MC (๐), there is usually no need to panic at that instant, and you can aim to exit into one more pop. If it is below (๐), it pays to step out faster. Either way, holding to the very end was statistically the worse choice. This is a tendency we see in accumulating data, not a hard rule, and we will keep checking it as more samples come in. (For informational purposes only, not investment advice.)