🔥 Trend Digest2026-05-22

Not Being Fooled: Looking Only at Call-Time Values

🧭 Hard-set a rule to use only values that existed at call time. Using current values (liquidity now, all-time high) creates survivorship bias, flattering only survivors. This principle made conclusions sturdy.

As we prepared for analysis, we sealed off one of the most dangerous traps in advance. Using a coin's current values, its liquidity now or its all-time high so far, in analysis is an illusion that makes only the coins that happened to survive look good. Future information unknowable at call time slips in and inflates the results. So we hard-set a rule that analysis would use only the values that actually existed at the moment the call was logged. This fight against survivorship bias would continue, but setting the principle early made our conclusions far sturdier. Disclaimer: This digest is provided for informational and market-observation purposes based on publicly available data. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset, nor financial or investment advice. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and resulting gains or losses.